saatavuusharhasta

Saatavuusharha, also known as availability heuristic, is a cognitive bias that describes the mental shortcut people take when estimating the likelihood of an event. Instead of conducting a thorough analysis, individuals tend to rely on information that is readily available in their memory. If an event is easily recalled or vivid, it is perceived as more probable.

This heuristic can lead to inaccurate judgments because readily available information may not be representative of the true frequency of events. For instance, dramatic news reports about plane crashes, while highly memorable, do not reflect the actual statistical safety of air travel compared to other modes of transportation. The overemphasis on easily accessible examples distorts the perception of risk.

The availability heuristic is influenced by factors such as recency, frequency, and emotional intensity of memories. Events that have happened recently, occur frequently, or evoke strong emotions are more likely to come to mind. Consequently, people may overestimate the likelihood of rare but dramatic events while underestimating the probability of more common but less sensational ones. Understanding this bias is crucial for making more objective decisions and avoiding distorted perceptions of reality.