mogelijkheidsprior

Mogelijkheidsprior is a Dutch term that translates to "possibility prior" in English. It refers to a concept within Bayesian probability and decision theory that acknowledges uncertainty about the underlying probability distributions of events. Instead of assuming a fixed prior probability for an event, a possibility prior allows for a range of possible prior probabilities. This means that the prior belief about an event's likelihood is not a single value but rather a distribution over possible values.

This approach is particularly useful when dealing with situations where there is a high degree of uncertainty or limited data. For example, when estimating the probability of a rare event, it might be difficult to assign a precise prior. A possibility prior would allow for a range of plausible prior probabilities, reflecting this uncertainty.

The use of possibility priors can lead to more robust and flexible inference. By incorporating uncertainty about the priors themselves, the resulting posterior distributions are less sensitive to specific prior assumptions. This can be especially important in fields like risk assessment or forecasting, where the consequences of inaccurate probability estimates can be significant. The formalization of possibility priors can involve using hierarchical Bayesian models or imprecise probability frameworks.