longcycle

Longcycle, or long cycle, is a term used in several disciplines to describe extended cycles or sequences that unfold over long periods. The most common usage is in economics, where long cycles—often called Kondratiev waves or long waves—are described as multi-decade fluctuations in capitalist economies consisting of alternating periods of high growth and slower growth or contraction.

In economics, long cycles are typically said to last about 40 to 60 years and are linked to broad shifts in technology, capital formation, and institutional structures. Proponents argue that major technological revolutions and corresponding waves of investment drive these extended cycles, while skeptics question the consistency and predictive value of the pattern. Long cycles have influenced theories of economic development, policy planning, and historical analysis, even as empirical evidence remains debated and the exact mechanisms vary by analyst.

The term long cycle is named after Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist who identified these extended fluctuations in the 1920s. Since then, researchers have proposed various explanations and have debated their regularity, duration, and drivers, with some arguing that the cycles are indicative of long-term structural change rather than precise periodicity.

In other contexts, long cycle can refer to extended, repetitive processes beyond economics. For example, in kettlebell sport, the Long Cycle is a competitive lift involving repeated clean-and-jerk cycles with a kettlebell, performed for a fixed time and emphasizing endurance, technique, and rhythm.

Overall, long cycle denotes a concept of extended, multi-decade dynamics, with economics being the most widely discussed domain.