incertesa

Incertesa is the concept of lacking sureness about a statement, outcome, or estimate. It arises from incomplete knowledge, variability in systems, or imperfect models, and it can be described qualitatively or quantified statistically. In Catalan, incertesa denotes this general notion of uncertainty across knowledge, measurements, and forecasts.

A common distinction is between aleatoric uncertainty, which reflects inherent randomness in a process, and epistemic uncertainty, which results from limited knowledge or imperfect models. In metrology and statistics, uncertainty is often expressed as a range or a probability distribution around a value, such as a measurement with a stated uncertainty interval or a predictive distribution for future observations.

Quantifying and managing uncertainty involve probabilistic modeling, statistical inference, and sensitivity analysis. Techniques such as Bayesian inference update beliefs in light of new data, while uncertainty propagation examines how input uncertainty affects outputs. In decision-making, scenario analysis and risk assessment translate uncertainty into potential impacts and probabilities to inform actions.

Etymology and usage note: incertesa derives from Latin incertus, meaning not certain. The term is used in Catalan to express uncertainty; related forms appear in other Romance languages as well as in technical disciplines worldwide. While related to risk, uncertainty emphasizes the presence and characterization of unknowns rather than a single, well-defined probability and consequence.