ilmastikuprognoosid

Ilmastikuprognoosid, Estonian for weather forecasts, are predictions of meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and atmospheric pressure for a specified geographical area and time interval. Forecasters use a combination of ground‑based observations, satellite imagery, radar data, and atmospheric sounding information to initialise numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models solve mathematical equations that describe the physics of the Earth’s atmosphere, producing output grids that are interpreted by meteorologists to generate forecast products.

Public weather services, such as the Estonian Weather Service and international agencies like the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts, provide short‑term, medium‑range, and long‑range outlooks. Short‑term (0–72 hours) forecasts are highly detailed and exercise frequent updates, whereas long‑range (up to 10 days) forecasts rely on simplified dynamics and are presented as probabilistic outlooks. Forecasts are usually issued in several forms: point estimates for specific locations, isobaric composite maps, and climate index summaries.

Advances in high‑resolution super‑parameterised models and ensemble forecasting have improved reliability, but factors such as chaotic atmospheric processes and limited high‑latitude data still impose uncertainty. The practical impact of weather forecasts spans agriculture, aviation, shipping, and event planning, with digital platforms and mobile alerts enabling rapid dissemination to the public. Continuous validation against observed weather and the integration of machine‑learning techniques are current research areas aimed at further refining accuracy and user relevance.