estimointivirhettä

Estimointivirhettä, often translated as estimation error, refers to the discrepancy between an estimated value and the true, actual value. In statistics and various fields, estimation is the process of determining a value for a parameter based on observed data. Since this process often involves uncertainty or incomplete information, the result is an estimate, not the true value itself. The estimation error quantifies how far off this estimate is.

There are several ways to measure estimation error. A common approach is to calculate the difference between the estimated value and the true value, which can be positive or negative. This is known as the bias of the estimator. Another important measure is the magnitude of the error, often expressed as the absolute error or the squared error. The mean squared error (MSE) is a widely used metric that averages the squared errors over many observations, providing a measure of both bias and variance. Variance, in this context, refers to how much the estimates are likely to vary if the estimation process were repeated with different samples. Minimizing estimation error is a primary goal in many statistical modeling and forecasting tasks. Understanding the sources and magnitude of estimation error is crucial for interpreting results and making informed decisions.