Termstruktur

Termstruktur, often called the term structure of interest rates, describes the relationship between the yields on bonds of identical credit quality and varying maturities. For a given moment, bonds issued in the same currency and with the same risk profile should have yields that reflect their time to maturity. This relationship is commonly summarized by the yield curve, which plots yields against maturities from short to long term.

The shape of the yield curve varies over time. A normal (upward-sloping) curve indicates higher yields for longer maturities, reflecting greater time risk. An inverted curve has lower yields for longer maturities and can signal tighter future monetary conditions or higher risk premia. A flat curve shows little difference between short and long maturities.

Key concepts within termstruktur include zero-coupon yields, forward rates, and bootstrapping, which are used to derive the term structure from coupon-bearing bonds. Theories explaining the structure include the expectations theory (future rates reflect market expectations), the liquidity premium theory (longer maturities carry a premium for risk and reduced liquidity), and the preferred habitat theory (investors favor certain maturities but may shift given incentives).

Determinants of the term structure include inflation and growth expectations, monetary policy expectations, term premia, and supply-demand dynamics for government debt. Practical uses cover bond pricing and risk management, valuation of interest rate derivatives, and macroeconomic analysis. Models such as Nelson-Siegel and Svensson are used to describe the curve’s level, slope, and curvature. Limitations arise from changing risk attitudes, liquidity, and policy regimes, which can alter the curve independently of pure time-based risk.