Sannolikhetsförklaring

Sannolikhetsförklaring, also known as probabilistic explanation, is a method used in philosophy of science to understand and evaluate scientific theories. It was introduced by Carl Gustav Hempel and Paul Oppenheim in their 1948 paper "Studies in the Logic of Explanation." Unlike deductive-nomological (D-N) models, which require strict logical connections, probabilistic explanations allow for a degree of uncertainty and randomness.

The core idea is that a scientific theory provides a probable explanation for an event or phenomenon. This means that the theory, when combined with initial conditions, makes the event or phenomenon likely but not certain. For example, a meteorologist's prediction of rain is a probabilistic explanation because it is based on a theory of weather patterns and initial conditions, but it is not a guarantee of rain.

There are two main types of probabilistic explanations:

1. Statistical Explanations: These involve statistical laws, such as the law of large numbers. For instance, the theory that a fair coin will land heads up 50% of the time provides a statistical explanation for the outcome of a series of coin tosses.

2. Causal Explanations: These involve causal laws and mechanisms. For example, the theory that smoking causes lung cancer provides a causal explanation for the occurrence of lung cancer in a smoker.

Probabilistic explanations are evaluated based on their probability and simplicity. A good explanation is one that is both probable and simple. This approach allows scientists to account for the inherent uncertainty in many scientific phenomena and to evaluate theories based on their explanatory power.