RCPscenarierna

RCPscenarierna, which translates to "RCP scenarios" in English, refers to the Representative Concentration Pathways. These are a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The RCPs were developed to provide a framework for climate modeling and for assessing the potential impacts of climate change under different future greenhouse gas emission levels.

There are four main RCPs: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Each RCP represents a different level of radiative forcing, which is a measure of how much the Earth's energy balance is altered by greenhouse gases. RCP2.6 is a low-emission scenario requiring significant mitigation efforts, aiming for a peak in emissions around the mid-21st century and a subsequent decline. RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 represent intermediate scenarios where emissions continue to rise for some time before stabilizing. RCP8.5 is a high-emission scenario characterized by continued strong growth in greenhouse gas emissions throughout the 21st century, leading to very high concentrations and radiative forcing.

These scenarios are not predictions of the future but rather plausible pathways based on different assumptions about future socioeconomic development, technological advancements, and climate policies. Climate scientists use these scenarios to simulate how the climate system might respond under these different future conditions, providing a range of potential outcomes for global temperature rise, sea-level rise, and other climate-related impacts. The RCPs have been instrumental in guiding climate research and informing policy discussions regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation.