PERTanalysen

PERTanalysen, also known as PERT analysis, is a project management technique used for estimating project duration and identifying critical tasks. PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review Technique. It is a probabilistic method that takes into account the inherent uncertainty in task durations. Instead of relying on a single, fixed estimate for each task, PERT uses three estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic.

The core of PERT analysis involves calculating an expected duration for each task. This is typically done using a weighted average formula: Expected Duration = (Optimistic + 4 * Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6. This formula gives more weight to the most likely duration, acknowledging that it's the most probable outcome.

Once expected durations are calculated for all tasks, PERT analysis helps in constructing a project network diagram, similar to a Critical Path Method (CPM) diagram. This diagram visualizes the sequence of tasks and their dependencies. By analyzing this network, project managers can identify the critical path, which is the longest sequence of activities that determines the shortest possible project completion time. Any delay in a critical path task directly delays the entire project.

Furthermore, PERT analysis allows for the calculation of project variance and standard deviation, providing a measure of the uncertainty in the overall project completion time. This statistical information helps in understanding the probability of completing the project by a certain deadline. PERT is particularly useful in complex, research-oriented, or non-repetitive projects where uncertainty is high.