Overinterpretation

Overinterpretation is the tendency to attribute more meaning, significance, or causal connections to a stimulus, data, or text than is warranted by the evidence. It involves extrapolating beyond what the data can support, inferring intentions or hidden motives, or reading symbolic messages into ambiguous material.

In literature and art, readers and critics may claim authorial intent or symbolic meanings that go beyond what the text itself supports. In archaeology or history, scholars might overstate the importance of a single artifact or event. In science, overinterpretation happens when researchers treat noisy or sparse data as generalizable laws or when post hoc explanations are offered as predictive.

Causes include cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, narrative bias, or the tendency to see patterns in randomness (apophenia). Ambiguity, pressure to publish, or the desire to present a compelling story can also drive overinterpretation.

Mitigation involves rigorous methods and critical scrutiny: preregistration, transparent reporting, replication, appropriate statistical analysis, and clear acknowledgment of uncertainty. Considering alternative explanations and avoiding overreliance on a single piece of evidence helps prevent overinterpretation and maintains scientific or scholarly integrity.