Kontingensvärdering

Kontingensvärdering is a Swedish term that translates to contingency valuation in English. It is an economic research method used to estimate the value of non-market goods and services, such as environmental quality or public health benefits. These are goods that do not have a readily observable market price. The core principle of contingency valuation is to ask individuals how much they would be willing to pay (WTP) for an improvement in a non-market good or how much they would be willing to accept (WTA) as compensation for a loss of that good.

The method typically involves surveying a representative sample of the population. Participants are presented with hypothetical scenarios describing changes in the quality or availability of a non-market good. They are then asked to state their WTP or WTA using various survey instruments, such as referendum-style questions (yes/no to a specific amount) or payment card formats (choosing an amount from a range). The aggregated responses are then statistically analyzed to derive an aggregate WTP or WTA for the good in question.

Contingency valuation is often employed in cost-benefit analyses of environmental regulations, natural resource damage assessments, and the valuation of cultural heritage. Despite its widespread use, the method is also subject to criticism. Potential biases include strategic bias (respondents may state a value they believe will influence policy), information bias (respondents may not fully understand the good or its implications), and hypothetical bias (respondents' stated willingness to pay in a hypothetical scenario may differ from their actual behavior). Researchers employ various techniques to mitigate these biases and improve the reliability of the estimates.