Konfirmationsbias

Konfirmationsbias, also known as confirmation bias, is a cognitive bias characterized by the tendency to favor information that confirms one's preconceptions while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. This bias can affect how people collect, interpret, and remember information, shaping beliefs and judgments even in the face of contradictory evidence.

The concept emerged from research in the 1960s led by Peter Wason, who showed that people tend to seek information that would confirm a stated hypothesis rather than test it impartially. The term was later widely reviewed by Nickerson in 1998 and has since been demonstrated across many domains, including science, politics, and everyday decision making.

Mechanisms behind konfirmationsbias include motivated reasoning and a drive for cognitive consistency. People selectively expose themselves to information, interpret ambiguous evidence in a supporting light, and recall information that reinforces their views. Social and emotional factors, such as identity and group membership, can strengthen the bias and contribute to polarization and overconfidence in erroneous beliefs.

Examples and impact vary by context. In science, confirmation bias can skew data interpretation or hypothesis testing. In politics and media, it helps sustain echo chambers and partisan beliefs. In medicine or law, biased interpretation of evidence can influence judgments and outcomes.

Mitigation strategies aim to reduce its influence: seeking disconfirming evidence, preregistration of hypotheses, structured evidence reviews, exposure to diverse viewpoints, and debiasing training. In research, practices such as blind analysis and replication are also used to counteract konfirmationsbias.