Etuusmikrosimuloinnit

Etuusmikrosimuloinnit, often translated as welfare microsimulations or benefit microsimulations, are computational models used to analyze the impact of changes in social welfare policies. These models simulate the economic behavior of individual households or persons (the "micro" level) in response to specific policy alterations. They are particularly useful for estimating the distributional effects of proposed legislation, such as changes to tax rates, social security benefits, or unemployment insurance.

The core principle of a microsimulation model is to take a large, representative sample of the population, often derived from survey data, and apply a set of rules and equations to each individual or household unit. These rules represent the existing policy environment. When a policy change is introduced, these rules are modified, and the model recalculates the outcomes for each unit, such as income, taxes paid, benefits received, and disposable income.

By aggregating the results across all simulated units, policymakers can gain insights into how a policy change would affect different income groups, demographic segments, or geographical regions. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of the potential consequences than simpler aggregate models can provide. Etuusmikrosimuloinnit are employed in various countries by government agencies, research institutions, and think tanks to inform policy design and evaluation. They help answer questions like "How will this tax cut affect low-income families?" or "What will be the budgetary cost of increasing child benefits?".