Cyclusvariabiliteit

Cyclusvariabiliteit refers to the fluctuations in economic activity that occur over time. These fluctuations are characterized by periods of expansion and contraction, often referred to as booms and busts. While the overall trend of an economy is typically growth, the path it takes is not a smooth, linear progression. Instead, it follows a cyclical pattern.

The business cycle is commonly divided into four phases: expansion, peak, contraction (or recession), and trough. An expansion is a period of increasing economic output, employment, and consumer spending. This phase is often marked by rising incomes and business investment. The peak represents the highest point of economic activity in a cycle, after which a downturn begins.

A contraction, or recession, is characterized by a decline in economic output, employment, and consumer spending. During this phase, businesses may reduce production and lay off workers. The trough is the lowest point of economic activity, after which the economy begins to recover and enter another expansionary phase.

The length and intensity of these cycles can vary significantly. Various factors contribute to cyclusvariabiliteit, including changes in consumer confidence, government policies, technological advancements, and global economic events. Understanding these cycles is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals to make informed decisions and navigate economic fluctuations. Economists use various indicators to identify and forecast the current phase of the business cycle.