predictionmarket
Prediction markets are exchange-based platforms where participants buy and sell contracts whose payoff depends on the outcome of uncertain future events. Each contract represents a possible result and has a price that fluctuates with trading and information. In binary markets, a contract pays one unit of currency if the event occurs and nothing otherwise; the price is commonly interpreted as the market’s probability assessment under risk-neutral assumptions.
Trading in prediction markets aggregates dispersed information into prices. Market makers provide liquidity, while participants include
Markets cover binary, multi-outcome, and continuous variables, forecasting political events, policy timetables, economic indicators, product launches,
Notable examples include the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and Kalshi, as well as blockchain-based platforms such