növekedéselméleti

Növekedéselméleti – commonly translating to "growth theory" – is a branch of macroeconomics that studies the long‑term determinants of a country's economic expansion. It seeks to explain how variables such as capital accumulation, labor supply, technological progress, and institutions interact over time to produce sustained changes in output per capita.

The field emerged in the 1930s with the Harrod‑Domar model, which highlighted the role of savings and investment in fueling growth. In the 1950s and 60s, Solow and Swan refined these ideas into the neoclassical growth model, introducing diminishing returns to capital and the pivotal role of exogenous technological progress. The Solow residual remains a standard tool for measuring technology’s impact on output.

Critics of the neoclassical view saw it as too rigid; the endogenous growth school rose in the 1980s and 1990s, arguing that innovation, knowledge spillovers, and human capital could generate growth from within a system. Famous proponents include Paul Romer, who emphasized ideas as a source of increasing returns, and Robert Lucas, who highlighted human capital accumulation. More recent work by economists like William Easterly critiques policy prescriptions that ignore cultural and institutional constraints on growth.

Contemporary research blends these perspectives, examining how policy, governance, and global economics shape growth trajectories. It remains a vital area for informing development strategies and understanding the unequal distribution of economic progress across regions.