handelsnedslag

Handelsnedslag is a term used in Danish and Norwegian economic discourse to describe the effect of shocks to international trade on a country’s economy. It encompasses both the immediate changes in prices and trade volumes and the subsequent adjustments in production, employment, and the balance of payments. The word combines handel (trade) with nedslag (impact or strike).

The concept covers a range of trade-related disturbances, including tariff increases or reductions, changes in trade agreements, sanctions, exchange-rate movements, commodity price fluctuations, and disruptions to global value chains. Transmission occurs through several channels: price transmission via import and export prices, shifts in a country’s terms of trade, changes in demand for domestically produced goods, and the broader monetary and fiscal policy responses that follow the initial shock.

Measurement and analysis of handelsnedslag typically rely on macroeconomic indicators such as terms of trade, import and export volumes, inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment. Econometric approaches include structural models, vector autoregressions, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate how policy changes or external shocks ripple through the economy and affect sectors differently.

Applications of the concept appear in policy analysis and business planning, helping to gauge exposure to external trade shocks and to anticipate potential macroeconomic consequences. Historical cases often involve tariff policy changes, sanctions, or commodity price swings that impact small and open economies more acutely.

Limitations include the challenge of isolating a single handelsnedslag from concurrent shocks and the time lags involved in transmission. Related concepts include trade shocks, terms of trade, external-sector analysis, and exchange-rate pass-through.