futuurikäyrät

Futuurikäyrät, or futures curves, are graphical representations of the prices of futures contracts for a particular commodity or financial instrument across different expiration dates. Typically, the horizontal axis represents time to expiration, and the vertical axis represents the futures price. The shape of the curve provides insights into market expectations about future prices and supply and demand dynamics.

A normal or upward-sloping futures curve, also known as contango, occurs when longer-dated futures contracts are priced higher than shorter-dated ones. This often suggests that the market expects prices to rise or that there are costs associated with holding the underlying asset, such as storage or insurance. Conversely, a downward-sloping curve, known as backwardation, indicates that shorter-dated contracts are priced higher than longer-dated ones. This can signal expectations of falling prices or immediate shortages in supply.

The steepness of the curve can reflect the strength of these expectations. A steep upward slope implies a strong expectation of rising prices or high storage costs, while a steep downward slope suggests a strong expectation of price declines or immediate scarcity. Futures curves are important tools for traders, hedgers, and analysts to understand market sentiment, make pricing decisions, and manage risk. They are used across various markets, including commodities like oil and agricultural products, as well as financial instruments like interest rates and currencies.