ekonometrik

Ekonometrik is a branch of economics that uses statistical methods to test hypotheses and estimate relationships in economic data. It links economic theory with empirical observation by turning qualitative propositions into testable models and quantifying the strength and direction of relationships. The field, often called econometrics in English, emerged in the early 20th century with contributions from Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen, who helped establish modern econometric methods and shared Nobel Prizes for their work.

Core techniques include regression analysis to estimate relationships between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables; time-series econometrics for data collected over time; and panel data methods that combine cross-section and time-series data. Advanced methods include instrumental variables to address endogeneity, generalized method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, and cointegration and error-correction models for non-stationary data.

Applications span macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and public policy. Examples include forecasting GDP or inflation, estimating demand elasticities, evaluating the impact of education or tax policy, and modeling asset prices. Data quality and model specification are critical, with common challenges such as endogeneity, omitted variable bias, multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation.

Limitations include dependence on correct model specification and data; causal claims require careful identification strategies. Good practice emphasizes diagnostic tests, robustness checks, and transparent reporting of assumptions and limitations.