Wettmärkte

Wettmärkte, also known as betting markets or prediction markets, are platforms where individuals can bet on the outcome of future events. These events can range from sporting matches and political elections to economic indicators and entertainment awards. Participants buy or sell contracts whose value is tied to the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring. If a participant believes an event is more likely to happen than the current market price suggests, they can buy a contract. Conversely, if they believe an event is less likely, they can sell a contract. The price of a contract typically reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome. For example, if a contract for a candidate to win an election is trading at $0.60, it implies the market assigns a 60% probability to that candidate winning. When the event concludes, all contracts are resolved, with winners receiving a predetermined payout, usually a fixed amount like $1, and losers receiving nothing. The prices on these markets can fluctuate in real-time as new information becomes available, making them dynamic and responsive. Wettmärkte are sometimes seen as a form of collective intelligence, aggregating dispersed information and opinions into a single, quantifiable probability. They are used for both entertainment and for generating insights into future outcomes.