Warmerthanneutral

Warmerthanneutral is a neologism used in climate policy and risk assessment to describe a future climate state or model projection that registers as warmer than a defined neutral baseline. In this usage, the neutral baseline is a reference level chosen for comparison, such as a preindustrial temperature or a low‑warming policy target. A warmerthanneutral scenario thus indicates moderate warming relative to that baseline, but not as extreme as high‑warming trajectories.

Etymology and scope: The term combines “warmer than” and “neutral” into a single descriptor. It emerged in 21st‑century environmental discourse to facilitate discussion of intermediate outcomes without invoking precise numerical thresholds. It is not part of standardized climate-scenario nomenclature and appears mainly in qualitative analyses and policy communications.

Applications: Researchers and policymakers use the term to label analyses that anticipate modest increases in temperature and related impacts, and to discuss adaptation needs that are greater than a neutral reference but below severe warming. It often appears in scenario planning, risk communication, and comparative studies of mitigation pathways.

Limitations and criticism: The lack of a universal definition means the term can be subjective and may confuse audiences if used without explicit baselines. It is better accompanied by specific temperature ranges or emissions trajectories when precision is required. Related terms include warmer-than-average, warming scenarios, and standard climate pathways such as SSPs and RCPs.

See also: climate change, climate modeling, scenario planning, emissions scenarios, SSPs, RCPs.