Underlagsmodellen

Underlagsmodellen, literally the underlying model, is a term used in Nordic policy modelling to describe the foundational framework on which more detailed analyses are built. It denotes the core set of variables, their causal relations, the functional form of the model, the data sources, and the assumptions that define the boundary conditions for a modelling exercise. Rather than a single fixed model, underlagsmodellen refers to a common base that can be adapted by different applications while preserving a shared structure and provenance.

Construction and use: In practice, building an underlagsmodellen involves identifying the central drivers of the phenomenon under study, selecting an appropriate modelling form, collecting and documenting the underlying data, and conducting calibration and validation against observed evidence. Uncertainty, scenario definitions, and boundary conditions are specified at this stage to enable transparent sensitivity analyses and reproducibility. Once established, downstream models or policy analyses can be run by adjusting parameters or adding modules while relying on the same foundation.

Relationship to other models: Downstream models that address specific questions—such as cost-benefit analyses, environmental impact assessments, or energy system simulations—are typically implemented as extensions or applications of the underlagsmodellen. This structure supports comparability across studies and easier revision when new data becomes available.

Terminology and scope: The term is used mainly in Norwegian and Swedish policy literature, but the concept of a foundational or base model exists in many modelling traditions under different names. See also underlagsdata (foundation data), modelling, and policy analysis.