Planeringsfelet

Planeringsfelet, or the planning fallacy, is a cognitive bias that describes the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions, while overestimating the benefits of these actions. This phenomenon was first described by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979.

Individuals experiencing the planning fallacy tend to focus on their optimistic expectations of future performance, ignoring past experiences where similar tasks took longer than anticipated. They often fail to consider potential obstacles, unforeseen circumstances, or the possibility of errors. This leads to overly optimistic forecasts that are frequently not met in reality.

The planning fallacy can affect individuals, groups, and organizations in various aspects of life, from personal projects like home renovations to large-scale endeavors such as construction projects or software development. It can result in missed deadlines, budget overruns, and disappointment.

To mitigate the planning fallacy, experts suggest employing techniques like breaking down tasks into smaller, more manageable components, conducting "premortems" where one imagines a project has failed and identifies potential causes, and referring to historical data from similar past projects. Acknowledging the possibility of unforeseen challenges and building in buffer time are also crucial strategies.