Kockázathaszon

Kockázathaszon, or risk-benefit analysis, is a framework for evaluating decisions by weighing anticipated benefits against potential risks. It is used in risk assessment, regulatory decisions, and policy planning to determine whether an action or program should proceed. The term captures the idea that both positive and negative outcomes matter and that their likelihoods should be considered together.

The analysis typically proceeds by defining the decision context, identifying alternative options, listing the potential benefits and risks of each option, and attempting to quantify them. Where possible, benefits and risks are expressed in comparable units, such as monetary value, quality-adjusted life years, or probabilities of specific outcomes. Uncertainty is handled through sensitivity analyses, scenario exploration, and probabilistic modeling.

A common output is the net expected benefit, calculated as the total expected benefits minus the total expected risks. The risk-benefit ratio provides a relative measure of desirability. Decisions may use explicit thresholds, or incorporate ethical, legal, and equity considerations, especially when benefits and risks are distributed unevenly among populations.

Applications span public health, environmental and transportation policy, product safety, clinical medicine, and engineering. In each case, the goal is to inform decisions where trade-offs exist between improving outcomes and exposing people or ecosystems to harm.

Limitations include challenges in accurately measuring and valuing diverse benefits and risks, the influence of value judgments, and the sensitivity to time horizons and discounting. Transparency about assumptions and uncertainties is essential, as is recognizing distributional effects and potentially unequal impacts.

See also: cost-benefit analysis, risk assessment, multi-criteria decision analysis.