Grundinzidenz

Grundinzidenz is a term used in epidemiology to describe the baseline or reference incidence of new cases for a disease within a defined population and time period. It represents the underlying level of risk in a reference group and is often used as a benchmark against which observed incidence is compared. The Grundinzidenz can be adjusted for factors such as age or sex to reflect the structure of the reference population and to separate true changes in risk from shifts in population demographics.

In practice, Grundinzidenz is not necessarily the directly observed incidence in every setting. It is frequently derived from surveillance data, historical trends, or statistical modeling to capture a stable baseline that is free from short-term fluctuations such as seasonal peaks or outbreaks. By establishing a Grundinzidenz, researchers and public health officials can assess whether current incidence is above or below the expected level and can simulate scenarios in epidemiological models.

Applications of the concept include calibrating models, planning resources, and evaluating interventions. For example, comparing current incidence to the Grundinzidenz helps determine the impact of a vaccination campaign or a public health measure by estimating how much of the observed cases exceed the baseline expectation.

Limitations arise from the choice of reference population and time frame, as well as data quality. Different definitions of Grundinzidenz can lead to different conclusions, so transparency in methodology and assumptions is essential.