CarsonRule
CarsonRule is a fictional heuristic used in risk assessment and reliability engineering to illustrate a conservative approach to combining independent hazard sources. The rule provides a simple method for estimating system-level risk when a system consists of several independent failure sources. It suggests that, under small-probability and limited-interaction conditions, the overall probability of a failure in the system can be approximated by the largest individual failure probability among the components, rather than by summing all probabilities. It is intended as a quick screening tool to identify dominant risks early in the design process.
Origin and naming. CarsonRule is named after the fictional engineer Elena Carson, who is depicted in illustrative
Formal statement and use. The CarsonRule states: if a system has independent subsystems with small failure
Limitations and cautions. The rule relies on independence and low probabilities; it can understate risk when