kredibiliteettivälillä

Kredibiliteettivälillä is a Finnish term that translates to "credibility interval" in English. It is a statistical concept used to express the uncertainty associated with an estimate or a model's prediction. Unlike confidence intervals, which describe the range within which a population parameter is likely to lie, a credibility interval directly quantifies the probability that a parameter or a future observation falls within a given range, based on a prior belief and observed data.

The calculation of credibility intervals relies on Bayesian inference. In this framework, prior beliefs about the parameter are combined with the likelihood of the observed data to produce a posterior distribution. The credibility interval is then derived from this posterior distribution, typically as a range that contains a specified probability mass, such as 95%. For example, a 95% credibility interval for a parameter means that there is a 95% probability, given the data and prior beliefs, that the true value of the parameter lies within that interval.

Credibility intervals are useful in situations where subjective prior knowledge is important or when a direct probabilistic statement about the parameter is desired. They are widely used in fields such as machine learning, risk assessment, and forecasting, providing a clear measure of the uncertainty surrounding predictions. The interpretation is often more intuitive than that of a confidence interval, as it directly reflects the degree of belief in the parameter's value.