arvausmahdollisuus

Arvausmahdollisuus is a Finnish term that describes the probability that a guess will be correct given a set of possible outcomes and the information available. It is used in everyday language as well as in educational, statistical, and analytical contexts to express how likely a guess is to be right.

In a simple case with N equally likely alternatives, the arvausmahdollisuus is 1/N. If the alternatives carry different probabilities, the arvausmahdollisuus corresponds to the chance of the option chosen by an optimal guessing strategy, usually the option with the highest probability.

The concept is relevant in quizzes, exams, and decision making under uncertainty. It also appears in discussions about information value: providing information that narrows the set of possibilities increases the arvausmahdollisuus, even if it does not reveal the exact correct option.

Etymology: arvausmahdollisuus is formed from arvaus (guess) and mahdollisuus (possibility, chance). The term is primarily used in Finnish-language texts but reflects a general idea of guessing probability found in probability theory and related fields.

See also: probability, likelihood, odds, educated guess.