VARpõhist

VARpõhist is a term originating from Estonian that translates to "based on VAR." VAR stands for Vector Autoregression, a statistical model used in econometrics and time series analysis. Vector Autoregression models are multivariate time series models that capture the linear interdependencies among multiple stationary time series. They are widely used for forecasting and structural analysis.

Therefore, VARpõhist refers to methodologies, analyses, or predictions that are fundamentally built upon or derived from the application of a Vector Autoregression model. This could involve using the outputs of a VAR model to inform decision-making, to understand the relationships between different economic variables, or to generate forecasts for future trends. The core idea is that the underlying analysis or prediction is not arbitrary but is systematically structured by the principles and estimations of a VAR model.

In practice, a VARpõhist approach would involve first specifying a VAR model, which includes determining the number of variables to be included and the appropriate lag length. The model is then estimated using historical data. The estimated coefficients are used to describe the dynamic relationships between the variables and to forecast their future values. The term VARpõhist emphasizes this reliance on the VAR framework as the foundational element of the analysis.