Trendwert

Trendwert is a term used in statistics and data analysis to refer to the measure that summarizes the long-term direction of a data series. The exact meaning is not standardized, and the term can denote either the trend component or a trend estimate derived from data.

In time series analysis, trendwert represents the underlying trend after removing seasonal and irregular fluctuations. It can be obtained by fitting a linear or polynomial trend, computing a moving average, or applying model-based decompositions such as STL or various filters. The result may be a fitted function over time or a point estimate of the trend at a given time.

Applications include monitoring economic indicators, population metrics, environmental data, and quality-control signals where the general direction is more informative than short-term fluctuations. The trendwert can be reported as a time series of estimated trend values or as parameters of the trend model, such as the slope and intercept in a linear trend.

Calculation notes: method choice depends on data characteristics like seasonality and volatility. A linear trend assumes a constant rate of change; non-linear trends allow curvature. Outliers, structural breaks, and non-stationarity can distort trend estimation and should be addressed.

Related concepts include trend, time series decomposition, smoothing, moving average, and trend estimation.