Selgitusväli

Selgitusväli is a term used in statistics and data analysis, particularly in time series modeling and predictive analytics. It refers to the interval or range of time over which an explanatory variable (such as past observations) is considered relevant for predicting future values. In practice, this interval helps determine how far back in time historical data should be included when constructing models to forecast trends or outcomes. The length of the selgitusväli can vary depending on the nature of the data, the underlying processes, and the desired accuracy of the prediction. It is often determined through empirical analysis, such as cross-validation or by examining autocorrelation functions, to balance the trade-off between including sufficient historical information and avoiding overfitting. The concept is closely related to concepts like lagged variables, moving averages, and the order of autoregressive (AR) or moving average (MA) models, where the selgitusväli influences the model's parameters and performance.