Konsensusprognosen

Konsensusprognosen, often translated as consensus forecasts or consensus estimates, represent the average or median prediction of a group of analysts or experts regarding a future economic or financial variable. These variables can include a wide range of metrics such as company earnings per share, gross domestic product growth, inflation rates, or interest rate movements. The underlying principle is that by aggregating the opinions of multiple individuals who are actively analyzing the relevant data and market trends, a more robust and potentially more accurate forecast can be achieved than relying on a single individual's prediction.

The process of generating a consensus forecast typically involves surveying a defined group of financial analysts who cover a particular company or economic sector. These analysts provide their individual estimates for a specific future period. A data provider then collects these individual forecasts and calculates a central tendency measure, most commonly the mean or median, which becomes the consensus forecast. This aggregated figure is then widely disseminated and used by investors, portfolio managers, and businesses to inform their decision-making. While consensus forecasts are not infallible and can be subject to biases, they are widely regarded as a valuable benchmark for evaluating market expectations and identifying potential deviations.