Kondratievtsükleid

Kondratievtsükleid, also known as Kondratiev waves or long waves, is an economic theory proposing that capitalist economies exhibit cycles of boom and bust lasting approximately 40 to 60 years. This theory was developed by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s. He analyzed price and production data from various capitalist countries and identified these long-term cyclical patterns.

The theory suggests that these long waves are driven by significant technological innovations that fundamentally alter production and consumption. These innovations, such as the steam engine, railways, electricity, and automobiles, lead to periods of sustained economic growth and investment, followed by periods of stagnation or decline as the impact of these innovations wanes and new ones have not yet emerged to drive the next upswing.

Each Kondratiev wave is typically divided into four phases. The first is a period of prosperity, characterized by rising prices, investment, and economic activity. This is followed by a period of recession or stagnation, where growth slows, and prices may stabilize or fall. The third phase is a depression, marked by falling prices, unemployment, and low economic activity. Finally, a period of recovery leads back to prosperity, initiating a new cycle. While the theory has been influential, it has also faced criticism for its deterministic nature and the difficulty in empirically verifying the precise timing and causes of these long cycles.