Kermack

Kermack is a surname of Scottish origin. The most prominent bearer in the scientific literature is William Ogilvie Kermack, a Scottish physician and epidemiologist, who, together with Anderson Gray McKendrick, developed early mathematical models of infectious disease.

In 1927 they published A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, which introduced what is now known as the Kermack–McKendrick model. This framework describes disease spread using compartments such as susceptible, infectious, and recovered, and shows how transmission dynamics depend on contact rates and recovery. The work established a threshold condition for outbreaks and laid the groundwork for the modern family of compartmental models, including the widely used SIR model.

The Kermack–McKendrick model has had a lasting influence on epidemiology, providing a formal basis for analyzing endemicity, outbreak potential, and the impact of interventions such as vaccination and social measures. It helped shape the field of mathematical epidemiology and informed public health thinking about how diseases spread and can be controlled.

Beyond this foundational contribution, the surname Kermack may appear in other contexts, but it is predominantly associated with the early mathematical theory of epidemics developed by Kermack and McKendrick.