outcomewhether

Outcomewhether is a term used in discussions of decision analysis to describe a framework that analyzes outcomes conditioned on a binary proposition. The term blends 'outcome'—the result of an action or event—and 'whether'—the question of whether a stated condition holds. In this framework, the possible results are indexed by the truth value of a condition B ∈ {true,false}. Analysts describe, for each value of B, the set of possible outcomes O_B and assign utilities or payoffs to those outcomes. The evaluation then compares options by expected utility conditional on B, i.e., the expectations E[u(o) | B=true] versus E[u(o) | B=false].

Example: A farmer deciding whether to plant drought-tolerant seeds. If a drought occurs (B=true), the outcome might be high yield; if not (B=false), yield is moderate. The farmer weighs the conditional outcomes and the probabilities of B. Another example: A product launch where the outcome depends on whether regulatory approval is granted. The analysis proceeds by comparing the conditional expected payoffs under each approval scenario.

Relation to existing concepts: Outcomewhether is similar to scenario analysis, contingent-outcome modeling, and conditional decision theory; it is not a standard, widely adopted term but serves as a pedagogical device for illustrating conditional planning. Limitations include potential ambiguity around the definition of the condition B and the need to specify the probabilities of B and the mapping from B to outcomes. See also conditional probability, decision analysis, and contingent outcomes.