koldioxidbudget

Koldioxidbudget, often referred to as the carbon budget, represents the maximum amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted into the atmosphere while still having a certain probability of staying below a specific global warming limit, such as 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This concept is crucial for understanding the scale of emissions reductions needed to combat climate change.

Scientists estimate the remaining carbon budget by calculating the total amount of CO2 that can be emitted from the start of the industrial era to a future point, factoring in the warming already experienced and the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gases. Once this budget is depleted, exceeding it significantly increases the likelihood of breaching the chosen temperature thresholds.

The carbon budget is not static. It is updated as scientific understanding of climate sensitivity improves and as cumulative emissions increase. Therefore, it serves as a dynamic target, highlighting the urgency of immediate and drastic emissions cuts. Governments and international bodies use carbon budget estimates to inform climate policy and set emission reduction targets.