vindingskansen

Vindingskansen is a term used to describe the probability or likelihood that a participant will achieve a win in a game, bet, lottery, or other chance-based activity. The term is commonly used in Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish language contexts and translates roughly to the "chance of winning."

In a simple scenario with a fixed number of equally likely outcomes, vindingskansen equals the number of winning outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. For example, in a lottery with one winning ticket among ten million tickets, the vindingskansen is 1 in 10,000,000, or 0.00001 percent. When multiple independent trials are performed, the probability of at least one win can be computed as 1 minus the probability of no wins: 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the single-trial win probability and n is the number of trials. If tickets are drawn without replacement, the appropriate model is the hypergeometric distribution.

Vindingskansen is influenced by game design elements such as payout rates, ticket counts, and rules. A higher stated win probability does not guarantee a favorable outcome if the payout odds (payout multiplier or RTP) are low. In gambling contexts, the combination of vindingskansen and expected value (EV) is used to assess attractiveness or risk. The term is also used in risk assessment and sports betting to describe chances of success given current information. Related concepts include probability, expected value, and return to player.