vervolgscenarios

Vervolgscenarios are a type of scenario in foresight and strategic planning that describe possible futures extending beyond an initial or baseline scenario. They focus on longer time horizons and second‑order effects, examining how drivers such as technology, policy, markets, and social change interact over time. The aim is not to predict a single future but to test the resilience of strategies under a range of plausible developments.

Construction and approach typically involve several steps. First, a baseline scenario and key drivers are identified. Next, horizons are extended and narratives are developed that show sequences of events and how uncertainties unfold. Quantitative indicators or qualitative implications may be added to illustrate potential impacts on outcomes such as costs, performance, or risk. Finally, organizations evaluate strategic options, governance approaches, and necessary capabilities, often in collaboration with stakeholders, and iterate the scenarios as new information becomes available.

Applications of vervolgscenarios span business strategy, public policy, urban and infrastructure planning, and energy or climate adaptation. They help organizations anticipate cascading effects, test the robustness of plans, and identify adaptive options and investments that remain viable across different long‑term futures.

Limitations should be acknowledged: vervolgscenarios are not predictions, but structured explorations of what could happen. They rely on assumptions that must be updated as new signals appear, and they require careful communication to avoid overinterpretation or misapplication in decision making.