purecoincidence

Purecoincidence refers to the occurrence of events that appear related or meaningful but arise without any causal link or intentional action. In common usage, it describes outcomes that align by chance rather than through a hidden variable or deliberate influence. The phrase highlights the distinction between meaningful connections and true causation, a distinction questioned by statistics and philosophy.

In probability, coincidences are expected as a natural consequence of random variation, especially when many opportunities for coincidence exist. Low-probability events can occur simply due to chance, and base-rate considerations are essential to avoid overestimating significance. Cognitive biases, such as apophenia or hindsight bias, can make coincidences seem more meaningful than they are.

Philosophically, some discuss pure coincidences as events that lack any planned cause but may still be subject to impersonal natural laws. Others compare them with synchronicity, a term used to describe meaningful coincidences that lack a causal explanation but feel significant.

In everyday life, recognizing pure coincidences helps prevent overinterpretation while remaining open to patterns that may bear relevance. In statistics and risk assessment, thinking in probabilistic terms—considering sample size, event frequency, and multiple comparisons—provides a framework for evaluating whether an alignment is surprising or expected by chance.

See also: correlation vs. causation; apophenia; synchronicity; base rate.