conjunctuurgolven

Conjunctuurgolven is a term used in economics to describe the wave-like fluctuations of macroeconomic activity associated with the business cycle (conjunctuur). In Dutch usage, the term combines conjunctuur (economic cycle) and golven (waves). The concept refers to the cyclical components that rise and fall around a long-run growth trend, observable in indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, industrial production, and investment.

Characteristically, conjunctuurgolven are irregular in duration and amplitude, reflecting varying period lengths and intensities of expansions and recessions. They can be superimposed on secular trends and may interact with external shocks such as technological change, policy shifts, or global demand.

Analysts extract conjunctuurgolven from time series using decomposition methods and frequency-domain techniques. Classical approaches separate short-term cyclical fluctuations from long-term trends; more recent work uses wavelet or spectral analysis to identify dominant cycles at different horizons and to study how cycles evolve over time.

Policy relevance centers on understanding timing and persistence of cyclical swings to inform monetary and fiscal measures. Critics note that non-stationary factors and structural change can blur cyclic definitions, making the notion of a fixed cycle less robust in modern economies.

See also: business cycle, time-series analysis, economic indicators, spectral analysis, wavelet analysis.