Trusselbildet

Trusselbildet is the collective assessment of potential threats facing a country, organization, or critical system, combining the probability of adverse events with their expected consequences across multiple domains. In Norwegian security language it denotes the overall threat environment at a given moment and is used in security, defense, and civil protection planning. It is not a fixed forecast, but a dynamic portrait that changes as intelligence, incidents, vulnerabilities, and societal conditions evolve.

Trusselbildet is produced by government and security actors, such as defense ministries, police, intelligence services, and civil protection authorities, in collaboration with researchers and, where appropriate, private sector partners. The analysis draws on multiple sources: intelligence and incident data, trend analyses, risk modeling, simulations, and expert judgment. Key elements include threat actors (state and non-state), capabilities, intentions, potential targets, and scenarios. The assessment is typically organized by domains such as terrorism, cyber threats, military aggression and hybrid threats, espionage, disinformation, organized crime, and natural hazards or pandemics. Time horizons range from near-term to longer-term developments.

In practice, the trusselbildet informs policy and planning: deterrence, preparedness, resource allocation, response coordination, and resilience-building. It is often published in security or defence white papers, national risk assessments, or civil protection plans, though some details may be classified. While it shares similarities with the concept of the threat landscape in other countries, it emphasizes the dynamic interplay of actors, capabilities, and vulnerabilities that shape security decisions.