Stimmenzugewinne

Stimmenzugewinne is a political science term used to describe the increase in votes that a party, list, or candidate receives between elections or electoral rounds. It is a metric of electoral momentum and is commonly used in post-election analyses to assess how much support a political actor has gained compared with a previous contest.

Stimmenzugewinne can be measured in two closely related ways. One is the absolute gain in votes: the difference between the number of votes in the current election and the previous one. The other is the gain in vote share, typically expressed as percentage points: the current share minus the previous share. Turnout changes can influence these figures, so a large absolute gain may occur alongside a small or negative change in share if overall turnout has risen.

In addition, researchers distinguish between vote gains and seat gains. Especially in proportional or mixed electoral systems, substantial Stimmenzugewinne in votes may translate into few or many seats depending on district boundaries and thresholds.

Applications of the concept include media reporting, party strategy evaluation, and forecasting. It helps identify where a party has attracted new voters, retained existing supporters, or lost ground. However, limitations exist: district-level variability, boundary redrawing, and fluctuations in turnout can affect the relationship between vote gains and political influence.

Data sources for calculating Stimmenzugewinne comprise official election results from government or statistical offices and credible election analyses. See also Stimmenverlust, Stimmanteil, Wahlbeteiligung, and Sitzgewinn for related concepts.