Misestimated

Misestimated is the past tense of misestimate, meaning to form an estimate that is incorrect. It describes a judgment about quantity, cost, probability, or outcome that deviates from what later proves to be true.

The term is formed from the prefix mis-, indicating error or wrong, combined with estimate. It is widely used in everyday language and in technical writing to discuss forecast errors in finance, engineering, and planning.

Common causes include incomplete or noisy data, uncertainty, incorrect model assumptions, scope changes, and cognitive biases such as overconfidence or optimism. Range of possible outcomes may be large, but a single point estimate can still be misestimated.

Misestimated figures appear in budgeting, project timelines, demand forecasting, risk assessment, and scientific modelling. The consequences range from small budgeting discrepancies to significant resource misallocation or strategic missteps.

To reduce misestimation, analysts use probabilistic estimates, confidence intervals, and scenario analysis; gather better data; validate models against past results; update estimates as new information becomes available; and conduct post-implementation reviews to learn from errors.